The wild card in this race is Sean Parnell.  He is likely to beat Don Young in the Republican Congressional primary--and if that happens, if Gov. Sarah Palin begins campaigning for him criss-crossing the state, they will energize enough voters (who would vote for Sean Parnell) to also vote for Ted Stevens and send him back to DC (or so I think).

The last numbers I saw had Parnell and Young pretty closely split (mind boggling--you'd think Parnell would win in a landslide!) so this is a development worth watching.  While Gov. Palin would likely not campaign for Don Young, she absolutely would for Sean Parnell, either circumstance having a significant impact on the Senate race.

As toyomama pointed out, Uncle Ted is well-respected even by many Democrats up here.  More than a few have voted for him over the years.  He has brought the state gobs and gobs of money and is responsible for landmark fishery legislation, just to name a few.  The Anchorage airport bears his name, for crying out loud!  If Mark Begich could take down this behemoth, it would be huge.

As an aside, this is a race that is absolutely affected by having Obama at the top of the ticket (he won here, taking 74% of the vote).