Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Election Night 2000 (with update)

Think not??

I'll take you back to that fateful night in a moment.

But first, listen to strategist David Axelrod on WCCO, the CBS affiliate in Minneapolis, MN the night of the May 8 Indiana and North Carolina primaries. (The video is the top left "thumbnail" located just above the video player in the event the current news plays rather than the Axelrod video; you will also have to endure a short Coldstone Creamery ad).

http://wcco.com/national/obama.victory.p lan.2.719166.html

He talks about the "inside baseball" of the delegate situation, then pins Clinton with the upcoming "train wreck" which will happen if she stays in the race until the upcoming Rules Committee meeting. Then he gets on his high horse and indignantly proclaims that "the IDEA of Hillary Clinton contesting the validity of Obama's DECLARATION as the nominee of the Democratic Party is really a near nightmare and for Obama it's is just a thorn in his side" at a point where he should be focusing McCain. (This after admitting that neither candidate has the delegates to win outright (but he as the "majority" of them, Axelrod rationalizes) and that Obama himself hasn't sealed the deal because of his own primary loses. The whole situation is really a great inconvenience and indignity being put in Obama's way. Horrors if voters in the remaining states are allowed to actually express their preferences!

Now, let's go back to Election Night 2000. This should refresh your memory:

Blog  continues at:
http://tinyurl.com/45psse

(difficulty getting the formatting right here)



Display:


wow, fake outrage (1.50 / 2)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:32:16 PM EST

Re: wow, fake outrage (none / 0)

very intelligent response.  wow.


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:34:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you know what the say (1.00 / 1)

if you ask a stupid question, you get a stupid answer. Same applies to crappy fake diaries


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:17:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (2.00 / 1)

It is the most normal thing in nomination races to announce when you've clinched the nomination. McCain did it earlier this year. Kerry did it in 2004. Gore and Bush did it in 2000.  ETC.  


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:35:01 PM EST

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (1.66 / 3)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe McCain celebrated once he actually reached the requisite number of delegates, not a percentage of that number.  It just reeks of desperation, imo.  


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:36:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (1.50 / 2)

You would know...


Obama 08!
by comingawakening on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:28:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (none / 0)

Including a certain Bill Clinton in 1992.


by interestedbystander on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:03:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (2.00 / 2)

And I cannot imagine Obama getting on his high horse and getting indignant about Clinton leaving the race. He has not done that even once and it would clearly be terrible politics for him to do it at that point.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:36:09 PM EST

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical (2.00 / 1)

are we still whining about this?


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:36:30 PM EST

Before you work yourself into a dither... (2.00 / 1)

Before you work yourself into a dither perhaps you should wait to see if this supposed party happens and what form it takes? If he simply announces that he now has a majority of all available elected delegates would he not be correct? Is he not allowed to say it?


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:41:17 PM EST

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (2.00 / 2)

Respectfully, this seems like you are making a case for guilt by analogy. Both cases are of one party using media momentum to their advantage. That has no direct bearing on the validity of their underlying claims.

A long, detailed examination of a extremely close race in 2000 shows Gore may well have been the winner, or at least shows significant irregularities in certain counties.

Now, Sen. Obama holds the lead over Sen. Clinton by every metric, and baring any unforeseen events is considered almost certain to be the Democratic nominee (even optimistic estimates from Sen. Clinton's camp put her odds at somewhere around 5-10% at best). The remaining primaries are all heavily favored for one candidate and end up being a near perfect split. Florida and Michigan will soon be seated in some capacity and will almost certainly still place Sen. Clinton more than 100 pledged delegate behind. The super delegate movement has been towards Obama for the last month, and in the last week has accelerated rapidly.

I am happy my candidate won, but take no particular satisfaction from the fact Sen. Clinton had to lose for that to happen, and I think the sentiment, if imperfectly expressed, is the same in the Obama camp. That being said, we are passed the point where claiming Obama is the almost certain nominee of the party is empty posturing.

The Obama camp stressing this is certainly a PR move, but it is no more underhanded than the Clinton camp stressing how Sen. Clinton is a fighter and is hanging tough. It's simply the public image each has to project going forward, and as it stands I don't believe either is malicious.


by werehippy on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:41:59 PM EST

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (2.00 / 1)

If Obama wins a majority of pledged delegates on May 20, he will have a majority of pledged delegates, and he will be declaring that he has a majority of pledged delegates.

In fact, if enough supers have endorsed by then, he may be able to claim victory in the entire nomination battle.

The difference here between 2008 and 2000 is that in 2000 the election was still up in the air. If Obama has a majority of pledged delegates or a majority of all the delegates and he declares that, then I don't see what the problem is.

Oh yeah, I forgot, he stole all those delegates from Hillary.


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:44:16 PM EST

A majority does not clinch the nomination (none / 0)

You must get all 2209 delegates. Until that happens, you keep running and voters keep voting.

Recall the Boston Legal episode where Hillary's nephew said he was a pledged delegate, and planned to vote Obama even though his precinct went for Hillary. His reasoning? His pledge is not binding.

For a lightweight upstart like Obama to claim the nomination before he's clinched is not only audacious but unwise and will come back to bite him in the G.E.


by catfish1 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A majority does not clinch the nomination (none / 0)

No, it's 2025. FL and MI are not included because they broke the rule. Clinton, Edwards, Obama, and others all signed a pledge to this fact. Where did you get 2209 from?


Obama 08!
by comingawakening on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:31:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (none / 0)

Actually, it would be a very bad thing to announce he had won the nomination before all primaries are conducted, even if he has verbal agreement from superdelegates. He is not going to do that. That will ensure that many Democrats and probably even some non-Democrats feel less than comfortable with his nomination. That may not be a big deal to political strategists if it's pretty obvious he has won, but it would be very antagonistic. So let's muffle the primary jubilation for now and think long term satisfaction of voters.
by Jeter on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:06:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (none / 0)

No it wouldn't.  It happens every single time a candidate wins the nomination.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:49:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, except... (2.00 / 1)

Obama has actually won this election, unlike Bush in 2000.

So no, it's not quite the same.


Check out McCain.
by you like it on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:44:18 PM EST

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (2.00 / 1)

I would have sympathy for this argument if Hillary's campaign weren't trying to change the rules at the end of the game on Michigan and Florida.  They are counting on people being stupid and not knowing that she agreed to the elections not counting.  That is all their is to know.  If Obama tried the same bullshit, I would have been pissed as hell at him, and probably would have shifted to Hillary.


by gorebeatbush2 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:51:12 PM EST

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (2.00 / 1)

Another thing about MI and FL is that the DNC has a vested interest in not letting the delegates count from those sham elections because, if they did let them count, then they would have zero ability to ever keep states from breaking the rules.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:57:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A little history (2.00 / 4)

On April 8th of 1992 a full two months before he would secure enough delegates to claim the nomination Bill's staff was calling him the presumptive nominee:

[Apr 8, 1992] Clinton's showing yesterday convinced many Democrats that, even with the depth of concern about his character and his ability to win in November within his own party, his nomination is now all but assured. "Bill Clinton is the presumptive nominee," declared Mark Mellman


"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Bill Clinton
by venician on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:56:30 PM EST

Re: A little history (none / 0)

Hillary was also the presumptive nominee back in 2007.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the coronation.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:00:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A little history (none / 0)

Waiting for the outrage towards Bill Clinton...


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:08:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Campaign Is A Lie (2.00 / 1)


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:03:45 PM EST

Re: The Campaign Is A Lie (none / 0)

is it atleast delicious and moist?


by standd on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:48:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

As of now (none / 0)

the magic number is 2024.  According to the DNC, after one candidate has reached the magic number, MI and FL will be settled and the primary will be officially over.

That's AFTER one candidate has reached 2024.  So Hillary supporters, don't hang your hopes on her winning using MI and FL.  It ain't gonna happen.


Republicans = Borrow and Squander
by GFORD on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:36:35 AM EST

Re: As of now (none / 0)

Unless someone reaches the 2025 number in pledged delegates before the primaries are over, your point is moot at best. Superdelegates do not vote until the convention. Please do not impede a dignified option for one candidate to endorse the other? A lot of underdogs having their dreams crushed is never a good thing, is it? Patience.
by Jeter on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:11:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's May 20 Bash: A Cynical Replay of Elect (none / 0)

Absolutly, he will look like an idiot an as arrogant as ever if he pulls this stunt.


by orion1 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:32:48 AM EST


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