MyDD :: The Bob Barr Factor

The Bob Barr Factor

by elrod, Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:43:10 PM EST

I hated no man in 1998 more than Bob Barr. That smarmy, porn-stache sportin' jackass from suburban Atlanta led the Clinton impeachment hearings and made me fume at the television. He epitomized the right-wing GOP out of control.

But, alas, there is no man today who I love more than Bob Barr.

Today he officially announced his bid to seek the Presidential nomination on the Libertarian ticket. Unlike some relative unknowns on the Libertarian ticket before, Barr is a bigwig.

In the last several GOP primaries, John McCain has failed to crack the 70s in support. He got only 73% in PA, 74% in NC and 77% in IN. The remainder went to a combination of Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee and others. The GOP base is just not satisfied with John McCain as their nominee. And the GOP is smaller today than it was 4 years ago. Losing a sizable chunk of Republicans won't make up for McCainocrats defecting to the Dark Side.

Will Bob Barr make a significant dent in McCain's vote? Certainly it won't be on the order of Ross Perot, but a 2.7% Nader-like margin is a real possibility. Lots of GOP voters are furious at the party for abandoning small-government conservatism under Bush and, like Nader voters in 2000, they feel the party should be punished for apostasy. Moreover, Ron Paul will almost certainly endorse Barr as he's refused to back McCain. Paul carries a committed base of zealous supporters who make up a decent chunk of the GOP electorate (10% on average). Add to this the disaffected Huckabee voters who don't think McCain is "Christian enough" but who respect Barr for his role in the Clinton impeachment, and McCain has a real problem.

If Bob Barr pulls in more than 3% of the vote in November, John McCain is in deep trouble. Barr could easily tilt close states like OH, VA, NC, CO, NM and FL to Obama. Even GA, Barr's home state, could be in jeopardy.

The fractured GOP base is a real problem for McCain.

Update [2008-5-13 1:41:15 by elrod]: Booman has a good analysis of Barr's impact. It's the West and NH where Barr will affect the outcome most. Libertarian-oriented Republicans are strong in the West and with Barr siphoning off 5 or 6% of the vote in NV, CO and NM, those states could be out of reach for McCain. If NV, CO and NM go to Obama, he wins without FL or OH.

Tags: Bob Barr (all tags)

Permalink :: 29 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 1)

Thank you, a topic for all democrats!

by futbol dad on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:45:27 PM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (none / 0)

Crikey! Bob Barr!

Now, there's a man you can really despise. But now he comes to take away votes from McCain....

So where can I get my Bob Barr for President button?

by Radiowalla on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:55:06 PM EST

I put up a post on this at Bleeding Heartland (2.00 / 1)

My take is similar to yours:

http://www.bleedingheartland.com/showDia ry.do?diaryId=1365

In several states Ron Paul outpolled McCain in the GOP primaries (e.g. Nevada). Those are the states where Barr could post a problem for McCain.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:58:50 PM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 2)

Welcome to the disintegration of the Republican party. Couldn't have happened to a nicer hijacked political ideology.

can't rec, can't rate, par for the course

by upstate girl on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:00 AM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 1)

If Barr's presidency can get just a little traction, GA is in play for the DEmocrats.

by Pravin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:27 AM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (none / 0)

Interesting. Wonder how much traction he's gonna get. I know that the right has been worried about something like this. When conservatives were complaining about their lack of choices and threatening to go third party Hannity was up in arms over the idea, which amused me given his vocal support of Nader's various runs for President.

Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.

by Obama Independent on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:03:36 AM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 1)

I'm psyched about this, too. He could be a huge asset to us in swing states. But we've got to make sure he stays competitive -- if anyone can stomach it, they should make a donation to the magnanimous Libertarian who's doing his utmost to ensure a Democratic victory in the fall.

Support forced pregnancy? Vote John McCain 2008!

by sricki on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:03:46 AM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (none / 0)

Haha, great idea! I'll send him $5 just to get on the mailing list. Sure to be a hoot.

can't rec, can't rate, par for the course

by upstate girl on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:07:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 2)

Seriously, I've been hoping he'd officially enter the race for months. I got so excited by all the rumors. He could end up with a pretty significant following. People like my dad might vote for him because McCain's "so liberal". If anyone maxes out his/her donations to Obama in the fall, they should donate as much as they can to Barr. It's money well spent, and it's all going to the same great cause -- a crushing GOP defeat.

Support forced pregnancy? Vote John McCain 2008!

by sricki on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:21:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 2)

Did you hear that Ron Paul's supporters want to do some huge (relatively speaking) protest at the RNC? Between Paul and Barr, we could have a real barn raising on our hands.

can't rec, can't rate, par for the course

by upstate girl on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:33:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I live in Minneapolis (none / 0)

there were over 4k students at a rally for RP, however the students aren't back at the U until after labor day...

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:44:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 2)

Yeah, it's going to be hilarious. My friend and I were just talking about the uproar they're going to cause at the RNC. He wants to go, just to see the chaos.

By the way, I think I just convinced him to vote for Obama in the GE, which is an odd feeling, since I'm used to advocating for Hillary.

Support forced pregnancy? Vote John McCain 2008!

by sricki on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:02:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bob Barr: whattabout NH (none / 0)

I really wish I understood NH politics more.

In my very simple-minded view of things there is a Manchester "mill-worker" union-industrial base, a "Boston-worker" commuter class, a large "live free or die" Libertarian base, and a "values voter" Republican base.

All of which makes me wonder: (1) could Bob Barr pull a few percentage points in the general election in NH and (2) could that be enough to start coloring NH blue on the Obama/McCain maps?

by BlueInBoston on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:18:54 AM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (none / 0)

Is Gravel still running against him for the Libertarian Party nom?

Hope Barr gets it, in some of those whack states like Nevada he could probably pull 5% away from Johnny Mittens.

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:23:08 AM EST

Convention's Memorial Day weekend. (none / 0)

The 4th Amendment: It's not just for dope dealers anymore.

by benmasel on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:52:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What's hilarious about Bob Barr... (2.00 / 0)

is that he's all incensed, put-out and enraged about privacy rights. Privacy rights, that is, except for what you and I do with our, um... "privates".

When it comes to personal privacy regarding sexual behavior or matters of sex, well, he led the charge of indignation against Clinton in '98 and relished intruding upon what should be the most personal and private of all human interaction.

Barr is a gun-toting, life-long National Rifle Association member and what he really resents is the gubmint even thinking about looking into how many guns he owns and how much ammunition he stockpiles.

He abhors the Patriot Act, surveillance cameras on campus or street corners and all manner of federal firearms legislation.

But when it comes down to something as simple or basic as other family "rights", he is a Neanderthal First Class.

Before you all go jumping on the Whoo-Hoo Bob Barr bandwagon, realize that he could also very well pull some critical votes from Barack.

Disaffected Hillary supporters who refuse to vote Obama, can't stand McCain, but can cast a vote for a candidate in Barr who will be touting his anti-Iraq, anti-government intrusion policies which might catch some air with disaffected Democrats.

This could be a two edged sword, folks.

by RickWn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:43:08 AM EST

Re: What's hilarious about Bob Barr... (2.00 / 2)

Bob Barr epitomized the impeachment of Bill Clinton. No Clinton supporter would vote for Barr. Maybe Ralph Nader. But not Barr.

by elrod on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:58:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's hilarious about Bob Barr... (none / 0)

who knows, as many of them may just forget that he did that, and out of anger, vote for him. anything is possible, and in such a close election, we should not make assumptions.

"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States

by DiamondJay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:23:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You give Ron Paul too much support (none / 0)

he is more like 4-7% but it is concentrated out west like Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, Maybe Nebraska, all states that could go blue in the fall.

Hopefully Barr gets the RP endorsement (complete with a video on Barr's website).

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:43:31 AM EST

Re: You give Ron Paul too much support (2.00 / 2)

Maybe they could let Barr borrow the blimp too...

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:47:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Bob Barr Blimp (2.00 / 2)

... has a nice ring to it.

by BlueInBoston on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:52:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Blimp was rented. (2.00 / 1)

The 4th Amendment: It's not just for dope dealers anymore.

by benmasel on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:54:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually the people who headed up the Blimp (none / 0)

are deep in debt to the company that flew the blimp, stupid Paultards, they could have paid a bunch of people to go knock on doors for that kind of cash. Staying with the ancient tech theme the people could have worn sandwhich boards to advertise the crazy of Ron Paul...

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:04:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually the people who headed up the Blimp (2.00 / 1)

The Paul supporters out here in Portland (and Beaverton) were impressive. They had regular crews out on street corners and off ramps in several locations along my daily commute back in January. I think he'll do some serious damage to McCain again in the Oregon primary. His online fund raising community was also really impressive, so if that goes over to Barr, he might have some serious influence this Fall.

It's kind of impressive that Paul seems to do better now that the race is decided than he did when it was still in question. I think there are a lot of people who didn't want him to be the candidate who like using him to say FU to McCain. I hope they're willing to do the same this Fall with Barr.

by letterc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:12:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 2)

It's no surprise that the psuedo-libertarian wing of the Republican party finally gets sick enough of the way things have gone to fight back.

Obviously not a Barr fan, and he clearly fails to meet some libertarian principles, but I hope he hurts McCain BAD, in the booth.

Donate to Obama, Today!

by freedom78 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:54:50 AM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (none / 0)

I have always marveled at how the "law of unintended consequences" plays out. After Rush Slimebaughl's Operation Chaos, it is now politically acceptable (under the "playing tit for tat" principle) to blatently support a candidate you find abhorrent, in order to hurt another candidate. As such, I love the suggestion above that people who have maxed out their donations to Obama then donate to Barr. It's beautiful.

by nytrialman on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:37:03 AM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (none / 0)

If NV, CO and NM go to Obama, he wins without FL or OH

with what other states? What assumptions are you making?

by reggie44pride on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:31:03 AM EST

Re: The Bob Barr Factor (2.00 / 1)

Barr will probably put New Hampshire out of reach for McCain. Nevada and Colorado will be close too, as previously mentioned. Wouldn't be surprised to see him shave off a good chunk of McCain's percentage in Montana and Alaska as well.

by Skaje on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:26:33 AM EST

Who ever thought I'd be rooting for Bob Barr (none / 0)

Life is stranger and stranger. Go Barr!

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:02:41 AM EST

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