Women carried him to victory in the primaries too. Despite the bleating of female preference for Clinton, Obama usually carried the female vote for women under 40 or so. And the majority of voters in the primaries were women.

coming from a white male, I can tell you that everyone but white males will carry a Democrat to victory.

White males would carry a Democrat to landslide.

This will only hold true if Obama wins 100% of women. The real scenario is that McCain's margin among men must be slightly better than Obama's margin among women for McCain to win.

I expect McCain to take men by a margin of 5-10 points and Obama to take women by a margin of 10-15, giving Obama an overall margin of victory of 0-5% in the popular vote.

that maybe nobody is going to get 100% of any demographic group, and that the decision might be decided on something OTHER than demographics?

I know.  It's a shocking thought.  People might vote on the war or the economy this year.  The same polls that you guys are sifting through for demographic numbers also sift voters by the issues they care about, as well.

If Bush can fix the economy, lower gas prices,  and get us out of Iraq before November, maybe McCain has a chance.  HAhahahaha...

The story on how he rejected his wife who WAITED for him his whole term in Vietnam only for him to come home, cheat on her, and marry a millionaire heiress 17 years younger than her.

All because she had a car accident that disfigured her.

This story should bury McCain in the eyes of anyone women or man that has a shred of empathy.

Here is a good breakdown of the story,  watch it, you will find out some FASCINATING stuff about the story.

Day to day ups and downs, yeah I agree. But when it's a major surge in one demographic following the departure of a candidate from the race - I think we should be paying attention, don't you?

Look at it this way, if McCain had a huge surge among women following HRC's concession, that would be worth talking about.

"These kind of national polls are just beauty contests, as we don't have a popular vote but an electoral college."

You might have noticed that the popular vote almost always (well over 90% of the time) correlates with the Electoral College.

Or maybe you haven't ...

How about Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin?

How about Georgia where Bob Barr could pull enough of the vote to put it into play?

How about Arkansas where Hillary and others will have sway with the voters (Hillary or Blanche Lincoln will put this state into play.)?

So you agree it is foolish to ignore this poll?

Haven't you heard?

It's called hypocrisy.

See, the difference would be that general election polls taken during a heated primary are premature. General election polls taken during a general election are not.

And the people that asked you that were proven to be right: those polls you quoted were mostly meaningless given the vastly improved ratings of Obama now that he's the Democratic nominee -- just like many people predicted.

No, you're misunderstanding the way the polls were being used.

During the primary, the Clinton-vs-McCain numbers were better than the Obama-vs-McCain numbers, and some people were arguing that the superdelegates should ignore the will of the electorate and give the nomination to Sen. Clinton on the basis of those polls. The superdelegates rightly ignored them. (Those polls were misleading for a couple of different reasons.)

But in this diary, the polls are being used to think about strategy for the general election. If Sen. Obama were polling weaker among women, then he would have needed to concentrate on winning their support. But since he's already got so much support, he's better off concentrating on get-out-the-vote efforts.

You can still ignore the polls if you want. High-level campaign people need to look at them in detail, but for the rest of us the polls are just a fun diversion.

Please look at my above comment http://www.mydd.com/comments/2008/6/11/1 13554/892/3#3

And watch the video.

I think as more facts and witnesses develop the story of him cheating on and abandoning his wife to marry a 20 year younger millionair hottie(at the time) only to call her a cunt in public years later will be worse because as we know, the MSM does not have the stomach for stuff like that (as they didn't for Huckabees rapist pandering) this story will be etched into the rumor mills.

Please buy and recommend this book, the details are there and well documented.
The author is highly respected in the blogosphere:
www.therealmccain.com