MyDD :: myDDeepstakes: Who We Believe the Veeps Will Be

myDDeepstakes: Who We Believe the Veeps Will Be

by MMR2, Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 05:24:48 PM EST

I'm sorry, but I couldn't help it. That is, I couldn't help but bring a bit of the media's horse-race sensationalism to myDD just one time. With Obama's possible pick just days away, now is the time to offer up our predictions.

The Democratic and Republican presidential tickets of 2008 (in my book):
Obama/Biden versus McCain/Fiorina.

An explanation below the fold--

The prediction of Joe Biden is not one I would originally have made, or what I wanted. After all, I was a Clinton supporter in the primary--and even a VoteBoth.com petitioner after Obama won. I won't get too much into what I wanted, anyhow, because this diary is about what I think will happen. Clinton, now the keynote speaker at the DNC, is out of the running. Without Webb, top three contenders in the running are Bayh, Kaine, and Biden.

The Senator from Delaware brings the balance to the ticket that the other contenders don't: Foreign. Policy. Experience. I'm banking that, despite the allure of Obama's trip abroad, his advisors acknowledge Biden's greatest strength to be Obama's greatest weakness. There are other indications of a Biden pick that I won't get into here.

Let me say this also: Tim Kaine of Virginia, despite the recent buzz, would be a tremendous mistake. The personal connection is there, sure, but politically, the duo would only invite further attacks upon what the Republicans will label "the most inexperienced ticket ever in American politics." Is it a BS accusation? Absolutely. And between ourselves, we know that traditional Washington "experience" amounts, practically, to very little. Yet Tim Kaine is a risk the Obama campaign cannot afford to take. Obama can win Virginia without him, and Obama can also win the presidency without Virginia.

Now, onto the Republican ticket, which I intend to devote far less space about. McCain will hold his cards until Obama announces Biden, and until after the Convention. Then, he will announce a Vice Presidential nominee that will grab attention and media coverage--something we all know he desparately needs. The optics of the ticket are crucial: and McCain will seek a balance not only in age, but in gender. A female Vice Presidential pick, I believe, is most likely. From that premise flows McCain's most trusted (and 'experienced' female confidant): Carly Fiorina.

Again, my predictions are Obama/Biden versus McCain/Fiorina. What are your picks?

Tags: Vice President, nominations (all tags)

Permalink :: 36 Comments :: Post a Comment

McCain (none / 0)

Might do Governor Palin, if she isn't too tainted by her current scandal and can make that work with her family life.

As for Obama? I dunno. I expect a minor surprise. I wonder if he's floating the whole "not Hillary" bit to see if it hurts his numbers or not. Might be the sort of clever thing he'd do.

I think we're foolish, all of us, to count Clark and Richardson out. He may be holding his cards very close to his chest indeed.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 05:30:25 PM EST

Re: McCain (none / 0)

Well, I don't think there's a chance it could be Hillary now anyhow, since she'll be giving the DNC Keynote address.

by MMR2 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 05:39:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain (2.00 / 1)

I'm about 97% sure it won't be her. Just saying that using a scheduling tidbit to signal that she's out of the running is a brilliant way to see how people react without announcing it won't be her.

I'm being a bit silly, but the thought crossed my mind.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 05:41:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain (none / 0)

I still have a feeling that Obama might surprise everyone and pick someone who's not even on the radar. Or maybe I'm just bored and want something interesting to happen.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:03:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain (none / 0)

Honestly, I feel that "surprises" are things that Obama can do without. He needs someone reliable and known. To too many voters, Obama himself is a surprise and political unknown.

by MMR2 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:09:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain (none / 0)

He can surprise us with a very known quantity. I'm not suggesting any of the following will happen, but they are conceivable:

Hillary Clinton
Al Gore
Zombie Jimmy Carter
Jimmy Carter
Patrick Moyni.........nevermind, no zombie available

You get the idea. Bill Richardson, Wes Clark, there's plenty of "known" characters that aren't thought to be under consideration.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain (none / 0)

I think Richardson might be back in the running. He recently announced two fundraisers to help HRC retire her campaign debt. Could this be a move to help easy any hostility that Clinton backers might have toward him?

by Mayor McCheese on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:23:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain (none / 0)

Let's be clear - surprises and unknown aren't the same thing. What I said was he might choose someone who isn't on the radar, not someone who is unknown.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:30:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain (none / 0)

My fault, I assumed the radar was the national political radar.

by MMR2 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 08:22:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain (none / 0)

Or a brilliant distraction...

by alamedadem on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 08:41:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Fiorina (2.00 / 2)

would be a gift. She's the worse thing to happen to women's equality since the chastity belt. Even my PUMA aunt said Fiorina was an embarrassment to women.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 05:33:19 PM EST

Re: Fiorina (none / 0)

Well in all fairness she didn't QUITE destroy HP.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 05:38:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fiorina (none / 0)

You're correct, but it wasn't for a lack of trying.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:01:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's not really HP (none / 0)

it's because of her attitude toward outsourcing. My aunt is pretty proud of being a liberal and one who believes it's the government's job to keep people employed and fairly treated in the workplace.

When Fiorina said this;

"There is no job that is America's God-given right anymore. We have to compete for jobs as a nation."

it sent steam out of my aunt's ears.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:53:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fiorina (none / 0)

She'd be horrible. She's a champion of outsourcing. Imagine how popular that will be with rising unemployment, possibly a full fledged recession on our hands.http://thinkprogress.org/wonkroom/2008/0 6/20/fiorina-history/
She said there's no job that Americans have a god given right to anymore. This may be true, but how popular politically will this be.

by Mayor McCheese on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Who We Believe the Veeps Will Be (none / 0)

I don't think he picks someone from the D.C. crowd. I know, there is the bullshit experience attack to be made by the GOP, but a D.C. insider undercuts Obama's change message. Governors Strickland or Sebilius are options (I know, I know, some of Hillary's supporters might be sexist and hold Sebilius' gender against her because she's not Hillary.) Still, I just don't buy the idea of a D.C. insider. Maybe someone who has experience but is no longer part of the D.C. crowd. Richardson, Daschle.

I love Sherrod Brown, but don't think he's made the short list.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 05:41:03 PM EST

Re: Who We Believe the Veeps Will Be (2.00 / 1)

I am all for change, but I would hope that Obama's change message wouldn't exclude a fantastic pick like Joe Biden simply because he's been re-elected to the U.S. Senate time and time again. Joe Biden in the White House is big change.

He's more of a straight shooter than John McCain is, so how's that for undercutting the 'Straight Talk Express'? (Whatever happened to that, by the way?)

The only black mark was Biden's plagiarism in the 1988 campaign--talk about a bone-headed mistake on his part. It's hard to see how that could emerge as a signficiant and damaging knock against Obama's 'change' mantra, however.

by MMR2 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 05:50:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who We Believe the Veeps Will Be (none / 0)

I dig Biden too. I'd be happy to see him on the ticket. I just don't think he'll be selected.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:58:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who We Believe the Veeps Will Be (none / 0)

Didn't Strickland make it very clear he's not interested?

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:03:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who We Believe the Veeps Will Be (none / 0)

He did. I just don't want to let it go.

Also, I want to see a governor, not a congress critter, as veep.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 07:00:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

His two best choices (none / 0)

are people Clinton people wouldn't be happy with;

Bill Richardson
Kathleen Sebelius.

I think, by default, Evan Bayh comes next, if nothing because before he was a Senator, he was a Governor and he really needs a Governor IMO.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:55:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: His two best choices (none / 0)

I agree about a governor and not a congress critter. Richardson or Sebilius would be fine with me. I really dig Biden a lot. I just think that his long time experience in D.C. would be used against them by McSame. "He talks about change and pretends to be an outsider and then he picks long time D.C. insider Joe Biden as his running mate." On the other hand nobody is as good as Joe at being on the attack and yet genial at the same time.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 07:03:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I know we judge Sebellius (none / 0)

by her SOTU response, but I remember her attacking the President over the national guard after the Greensburg tornado and she was vicious, and I say that positively. She was not going to let the President get away with blaming her for the lack of Kansas national guard troops in the state.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 07:35:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I know we judge Sebellius (none / 0)

That was beautiful.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 11:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: myDDeepstakes: (2.00 / 3)

I'm a big Biden fan for the same reason you are- his foreign policy experience is without peer at this point. He's a little gaffe prone, but I can certainly live with that, when the man has the cojones to say something like this on the national stage, you can't help but applaud:

"Rudy Giuliani - I mean, think about it. Rudy Giuliani -
there's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a
noun and a verb and 9/11. I mean, there's nothing else."

Yes, he's been a Senator a long time, but Obama needs someone with a few cycles under their belt to throw off the inevitable "inexperience" meme that would accompany a VP pick like Tim Kaine.
Kaine hasn't even served a full term as governor yet, has he?

"Who are you for? That is the wrong question. It should be who is for you?" HRC

by skohayes on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:02:45 PM EST

Re: myDDeepstakes: (2.00 / 3)

I agree. Joe Biden kicks ass, plain and simple.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: myDDeepstakes: (none / 0)

Remember, Joe Biden happily voted for the Iraq War, which Obama has said on numerous occasions shouldn't have been authorized. That's going to muddle the "judgment over experience" argument.

by Will Graham on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:50:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: myDDeepstakes (none / 0)

You know, I agree with you. I think those picks would make a lot of sense.

by animated on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 06:56:09 PM EST

Re: myDDeepstakes (none / 0)

I honestly think it's going to be Sebelius. Not my first choice, but not a bad one in my opinion.

by Skaje on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 07:19:54 PM EST

Re: myDDeepstakes: Who We Believe the Veeps Will B (none / 0)

There hasn't been much talk about her, but I sure would like to see Napolitano. A popular western governor who gives him an even greater chance of cutting McCain's legs out from under him in Arizona. As for McCain, I think he needs someone who makes him look good. Jar Jar Binks?

by Cincinnatus on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 07:50:03 PM EST

Re: myDDeepstakes: (none / 0)

I'd love it to be Napolitano, but the media might play up her being single. Too bad, she'd be perfect.

I don't think it will be Biden as he's not an outsider - he's been in DC more than 1/2 his life.

Dark horses - Schwietzer and Chet Edwards. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin would be great, but she's pregnant and probably wouldn't say yes. Maybe Vilsack - he was a Hillary supporter and is not a DC insider.

As for McCain, Chris Cox or Portman would be my guess. Kay Hutchison would be a good choice, except for her messy little corruption trial in 1993. He has fewer good options...wouldn't be suprised if it's Ridge if Obama picks Kaine. You can argue all you want about Kaine being pro-life or not, but the media will make it a big deal. You can bet his membership in the pro-life groups will be played up as a slap in the face to pro-choice women.

by alamedadem on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 08:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: myDDeepstakes: Who We Believe the Veeps Will B (none / 0)

hhmmm...

i think your picks sound about right. but i have this sneaking suspicion that if mccain goes with palin (which is unlikely) there is big trouble ahead for dems.

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:18:39 PM EST

Re: myDDeepstakes: (none / 0)

the smartest thing McCain can do is pick Palin or Fioronni(?) - a woman.

if obama is dumb enough to chose anyone but hillary, he will lose a good portion of her supporters.

mccain can jump on this immediately by bringing in a female VP.

by nikkid on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:34:48 PM EST

VP picks (none / 0)

My guesses:

Obama/Kaine (Sibelius maybe)

McCain/Romney (Palin maybe)

I like Kaine, too, so maybe that's coloring it. (Less him as a guy and more him as a pick.) I'm sneakily worried about McCain choosing Palin--it would be pretty bold, pretty splashy, with like soft People profiles and gauzy coverage about how earthshaking the pick is. She's strongly pro-life and a complete outsider to Washington, which allows McCain to both placate the SoCons and co-opt the change theme . . . .

But I think he'll go with Romney, because it's safe and Romney's connected to the money people and also happens to be, as my co-blogger The Breach puts it, a fucking alien.

What is The October Protocol?

by Koan on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:45:48 PM EST

Not on the radar (none / 0)

Some folks not currently on the radar but might be under consideration:

1. Wesley Clark - Obama knows it would piss off McCain to no end.

2. Former Sen. Bob Graham of Florida - Lots of FP experience. Voted against the Iraq War.

3. Former Congressman Lee Hamilton (Indiana), of the 9/11 commission and Iraq Study Group - No single Democrat has a better reputation with the Beltway media.

4. Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana - Regular guy from the Mountain West with lots of blue-collar cred.

Any thoughts?

by Will Graham on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:58:30 PM EST

Re: Not on the radar (none / 0)

Graham and Hamilton are way too old...Hamilton is almost 80...although truth be told, I think both of them are great. Graham was my first choice in 2004. When he dropped out, I switched to...

...Wesley Clark...so there's my pick of the four.

Schweitzer needs to stay in Montana for now. Like Virginia, his Lt. Governor is a Republican and the whole running for statewide and VP thing may have worked for Lieberman in Connecticut, but I don't know about Montana.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 10:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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